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Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pogon Szczecin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Pogon Szczecin 0-3 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.83 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.97 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.26 / defence 0.91 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.86 / defence 0.86, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 57% | Draw 24% | Gornik Zabrze 19%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Gornik Zabrze win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Gornik Zabrze 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.63 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights