Pogon Szczecin 0-3 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 August 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gornik Zabrze's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.30 for Gornik Zabrze. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 3W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2025, ended 3–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 47% versus Gornik Zabrze 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | Gornik Zabrze 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.83 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.262 / defence 0.911 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.860 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.241. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Pogon Szczecin games / 38 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 57% | Draw 24% | Gornik Zabrze 19%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Gornik Zabrze 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 40% | Gornik Zabrze 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 57% | Draw 24% | Gornik Zabrze 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.83 / Gornik Zabrze 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.262 / def 0.911 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.860 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Gornik Zabrze xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Pogon Szczecin 0 - 3 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 57% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (8 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 3W | Draws 1 | Gornik Zabrze 4W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.26x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (0.86x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.19
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.80
0.97
Gornik Zabrze xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
16%
6.21
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
3%
32.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.97 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 38 games, going 18W 8D 12L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Gornik Zabrze sit at 1.39 PPG from 38 outings (15W 8D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.39 for Gornik Zabrze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 14W 2D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gornik Zabrze have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.24 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 18W 8D 12L in their last 38 games (1.63 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.44 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won 1-4 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
5
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 33%, Gornik Zabrze 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Pogon Szczecin) and 50% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Gornik Zabrze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 56% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 50% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Pogon Szczecin 0-3 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.83 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.97 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.26 / defence 0.91 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.86 / defence 0.86, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 57% | Draw 24% | Gornik Zabrze 19%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Gornik Zabrze win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Gornik Zabrze 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.63 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.