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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sun 17 Aug 2025

16:30

Venue

Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Pogon Szczecin Win

57%

Pogon Szczecin

1.76

24%

Draw

4.19

19%

Gornik Zabrze

5.18

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

11.1%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

10.8%

Draw

2 – 0

10.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.83

Pogon Szczecin xG

Total xG

2.80

0.97

Gornik Zabrze xG

57%
24%
19%
Pogon SzczecinDrawGornik Zabrze

1.76

57%

Home win

4.19

24%

Draw

5.18

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.90

47%

BTTS No

2.12

Clean Sheet

38%

Pogon Szczecin

2.65

16%

Gornik Zabrze

6.21

Win to Nil

21%

Pogon Szczecin

4.65

3%

Gornik Zabrze

32.17

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.1 5.9 2.9 0.9 0.2
1 11.1 10.8 5.3 1.7 0.4 0.1
2 10.1 9.9 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.1
3 6.2 6.0 2.9 0.9 0.2
4 2.8 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1
5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.826
λ Away (xG) 0.973
Total xG 2.799
League avg home goals 1.677
League avg away goals 1.241
Pogon Szczecin attack strength 1.262
Pogon Szczecin defence strength 0.911
Gornik Zabrze attack strength 0.860
Gornik Zabrze defence strength 0.863
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 38