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Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Cracovia Krakow 5-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.18 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.18 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 36%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 50%, Cracovia Krakow 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.64 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights