Pogon Szczecin 5-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 36%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 0.90 PPG lead over Cracovia Krakow (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 41% versus Cracovia Krakow 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 50% | Cracovia Krakow 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.18 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.999 / defence 0.941 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.061 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.184. Data: 58 Pogon Szczecin games / 58 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 36%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Cracovia Krakow 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 30% | Cracovia Krakow 70%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.18 / Cracovia Krakow 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.999 / def 0.941 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.061 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Cracovia Krakow xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 14 March 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin 5 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 36% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (6 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 3W | Draws 2 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (1.06x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.58
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.36
1.18
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.18 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 28W 11D 19L from 58 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 18W 23D 17L across 58 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.33 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 17W 3D 8L from 28 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 10W 10D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.50 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 28W 11D 19L in their last 58 games (1.64 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 18W 23D 17L in their last 58 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.93 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 1-5 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 39%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pogon Szczecin) and 36% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 32%; Cracovia Krakow in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 36% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Cracovia Krakow 5-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.18 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.18 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 36%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 50%, Cracovia Krakow 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.64 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.