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Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Arka Gdynia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Arka Gdynia 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.52 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.81 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Arka Gdynia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.20 / defence 1.10 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.61 / defence 1.46, drawn from 54/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 73% | Draw 18% | Arka Gdynia 9%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 63%, Arka Gdynia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.16 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights