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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Piast Gliwice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Piast Gliwice 1-3 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.41 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.31 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.16 / defence 1.05, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 33%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 41%, Raków Częstochowa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights