Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice host Radomiak Radom at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Piast Gliwice have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 3 for Radomiak Radom and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2026, ended 2–0 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Piast Gliwice 56% and Radomiak Radom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 54% | Radomiak Radom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 2.52 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.179 / defence 1.205 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.749 / defence 1.393. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.393 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Piast Gliwice games / 43 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 64% | Draw 22% | Radomiak Radom 14%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Radomiak Radom 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Piast Gliwice (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.52 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 70% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 64% | Draw 22% | Radomiak Radom 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 66% | xG Piast Gliwice 2.52 / Radomiak Radom 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.179 / def 1.205 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.749 / def 1.393 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Radomiak Radom xG
66%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 64% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom?
Record (10 meetings): Piast Gliwice 3W | Draws 4 | Radomiak Radom 3W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 1.18x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.58
14%
7.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.70
1.18
Radomiak Radom xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
7.26
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
8%
12.49
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
1%
90.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.18 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 15W 9D 19L from 43 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 17L across 43 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.26 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 2W 8D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.37 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 67%.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.38 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
4
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 57%, Radomiak Radom 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Piast Gliwice) and 62% (Radomiak Radom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Piast Gliwice's games and 67% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Piast Gliwice's matches and 62% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.