Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice host Radomiak Radom at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 13 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Piast Gliwice have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Radomiak Radom have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Piast Gliwice have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 10 H2H matches, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Radomiak Radom 3, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 10 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2026, ended Piast Gliwice 2–0 Radomiak Radom — a Piast Gliwice win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Piast Gliwice 58% and Radomiak Radom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 54% | Radomiak Radom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 2.39 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.213 / defence 1.140 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.959 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.304. Radomiak Radom's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Piast Gliwice's projected output up. Data: built from Piast Gliwice's last 48 games and Radomiak Radom's last 48.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 58% | Draw 22% | Radomiak Radom 21%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.73 | Draw 4.65 | Radomiak Radom 4.80. The model has a clear lean to Piast Gliwice (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.39 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Piast Gliwice's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Piast Gliwice 80% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 58% | Draw 22% | Radomiak Radom 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Piast Gliwice 2.39 / Radomiak Radom 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.213 / def 1.140 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.959 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Radomiak Radom xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 25) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 58% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 1.21x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Piast Gliwice's last 48 games and Radomiak Radom's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.65
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.81
1.43
Radomiak Radom xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
9%
10.90
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
2%
52.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.43 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 17W 12D 19L from 48 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 20L across 48 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.31 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 10W 5D 9L from their last 24 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 3W 8D 13L across their last 24 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.44 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 67%.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Piast Gliwice (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 17W 12D 19L in their last 48 games (1.31 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 13D 20L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.46 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
4
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Radomiak Radom 0-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 58%, Radomiak Radom 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Piast Gliwice) and 58% (Radomiak Radom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Piast Gliwice's games and 62% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Piast Gliwice's matches and 58% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 71% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.