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Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 0.82 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.49 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.73 / defence 1.16 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.09 / defence 0.76, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 21% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 53%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Piast Gliwice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 33%, Pogon Szczecin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights