Stal Mielec 2-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 37%, yet in-form Jagiellonia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 20 as Stal Mielec welcome Jagiellonia to Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jagiellonia are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stal Mielec, 3 for Jagiellonia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 53% versus Jagiellonia 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 49% | Jagiellonia 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.36 xG and Jagiellonia 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 1.013 / defence 0.975 | Jagiellonia attack 1.131 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.168. Data: 53 Stal Mielec games / 53 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 37% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 34%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Jagiellonia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stal Mielec are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jagiellonia (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Stal Mielec 40% | Jagiellonia 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 37% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Stal Mielec 1.36 / Jagiellonia 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 1.013 / def 0.975 | Jagiellonia attack 1.131 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Jagiellonia xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Stal Mielec 2 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia part of?
Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 37% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia?
Record (7 meetings): Stal Mielec 1W | Draws 3 | Jagiellonia 3W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 1.01x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.48
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.65
1.29
Jagiellonia xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.29 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stal Mielec come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 14D 23L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.91 PPG from 53 outings (29W 14D 10L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stal Mielec's home form reads 12W 9D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.58 points per game from 26 outings (11W 8D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 2.15 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 29W 14D 10L in their last 53 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Jagiellonia away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.73 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2022, when Jagiellonia won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
3
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 50%, Jagiellonia 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stal Mielec) and 65% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Stal Mielec's games and 73% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Stal Mielec's matches and 65% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stal Mielec edge out Jagiellonia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Jagiellonia 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.36 xG and Jagiellonia 1.29 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 1.01 / defence 0.97 against Jagiellonia attack 1.13 / defence 0.94, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 37% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 34%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 49%, Jagiellonia 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Stal Mielec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.