Slask Wroclaw 0-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tarczyński Arena plays host to Slask Wroclaw versus Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Thursday 6 April 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slask Wroclaw have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 3W 4D 3L at Tarczyński Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Piast Gliwice arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Slask Wroclaw 0W, Piast Gliwice 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Slask Wroclaw goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 62% versus Piast Gliwice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Slask Wroclaw 45% | Piast Gliwice 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 0.85 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.947 / defence 1.153 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.101 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.040. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Slask Wroclaw games / 60 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 22% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 45%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | Piast Gliwice 2.22. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slask Wroclaw 70% | Piast Gliwice 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Apr 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 22% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Slask Wroclaw 0.85 / Piast Gliwice 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.947 / def 1.153 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.101 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Piast Gliwice xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 6 April 2023 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 22% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice?
Record (3 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 0W | Draws 2 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Slask Wroclaw's attack at 0.95x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (1.10x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
22%
4.52
33%
3.08
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.17
1.32
Piast Gliwice xG
4.52
22%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
6%
16.93
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 15.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.32 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 14W 24D 22L from 60 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 21L across 60 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 1.45 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Slask Wroclaw have managed 7W 14D 9L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 13W 8D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.22 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 14W 24D 22L in their last 60 games (1.10 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 24W 15D 21L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.17 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Piast Gliwice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 63%, Piast Gliwice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Slask Wroclaw) and 23% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 37%; Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 33% of games; Piast Gliwice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 33% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 23% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Slask Wroclaw 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Slask Wroclaw 0-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 0.85 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.32 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slask Wroclaw fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.10 / defence 0.73, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 22% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 45%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 45%, Piast Gliwice 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.10 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.