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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.20 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.39 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.22 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 31% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Motor Lublin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 54%, Zaglebie Lubin 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.41 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights