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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Motor Lublin edge out Pogon Szczecin 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.62 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.07 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 49% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 24%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 52%, Pogon Szczecin 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.35 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights