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Shock result as Lech Poznan defy the odds to beat Motor Lublin 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Motor Lublin 0-1 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.03 xG and Lech Poznan 0.99 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Motor Lublin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Lech Poznan attack 0.98 / defence 0.76, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 34% | Draw 33% | Lech Poznan 32%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Lech Poznan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 52%, Lech Poznan 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights