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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 33, as Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow drew 3-3 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.29 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.74 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Motor Lublin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 48% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 20%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 52%, Cracovia Krakow 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.38 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights