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Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.24 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 37% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 32%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 48%, Zaglebie Lubin 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.42 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights