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Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Pogon Szczecin 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Pogon Szczecin 1-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.73 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.94 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pogon Szczecin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.00 / defence 0.80 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 20%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Pogon Szczecin 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.57 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights