Legia Warszawa 1-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Legia Warszawa 1.30 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Legia Warszawa, 3 for Pogon Szczecin and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 62% versus Pogon Szczecin 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 52% | Pogon Szczecin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.73 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.000 / defence 0.796 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.979 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.206. Legia Warszawa's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Legia Warszawa games / 43 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 20%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Pogon Szczecin 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Pogon Szczecin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.73 / Pogon Szczecin 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.000 / def 0.796 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.979 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Pogon Szczecin xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 55% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (7 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 3 | Pogon Szczecin 3W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.03
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.67
0.94
Pogon Szczecin xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
4%
28.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.94 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 42 games, going 18W 12D 12L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.55 PPG from 42 outings (19W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.57 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 11W 6D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.67 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 18W 12D 12L in their last 42 games (1.57 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 8D 15L in their last 42 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.86 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Legia Warszawa go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
3
Draws
3
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 62%, Pogon Szczecin 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Legia Warszawa) and 52% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 29% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Legia Warszawa's games and 57% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 52% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Pogon Szczecin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Pogon Szczecin 1-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.73 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.94 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pogon Szczecin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.00 / defence 0.80 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 20%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Pogon Szczecin 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.57 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.