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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lechia Gdansk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Lechia Gdansk 0-2 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.99 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.31 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.34 / defence 1.13 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 52% | Draw 24% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 64%, Zaglebie Lubin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.25 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights