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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 2.04 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.39 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.32 / defence 1.07 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.13 / defence 1.10, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 52% | Draw 23% | Raków Częstochowa 25%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Raków Częstochowa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 62%, Raków Częstochowa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights