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Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 2.41 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.52 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.15 / defence 1.41, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 21% | Radomiak Radom 23%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Radomiak Radom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 60%, Radomiak Radom 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.11 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights