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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lechia Gdansk edge out Pogon Szczecin 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.93 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.00 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.29 / defence 1.07 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 59% | Draw 23% | Pogon Szczecin 19%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 63%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.24 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights