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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice finished level at 1-1 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 2.31 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.48 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.40 / defence 1.12 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.17 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 21% | Piast Gliwice 24%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 63%, Piast Gliwice 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.27 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights