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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Legia Warszawa defy the odds to beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.71 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.15 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.25 / defence 1.09 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 49% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 24%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Legia Warszawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 64%, Legia Warszawa 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.21 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights