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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lechia Gdansk edge out Korona Kielce 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Korona Kielce 3-2 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.19 xG and Korona Kielce 1.08 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Korona Kielce outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Korona Kielce attack 0.81 / defence 0.86, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 38% | Draw 29% | Korona Kielce 33%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 52%, Korona Kielce 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.06 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights