🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 38%, yet in-form Korona Kielce provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Korona Kielce travel to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk to take on Lechia Gdansk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025, 11:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Lechia Gdansk's home record at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Korona Kielce have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Korona Kielce have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Korona Kielce's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Lechia Gdansk's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 2 for Korona Kielce and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Lechia Gdansk trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Korona Kielce trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 61% versus Korona Kielce 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 52% | Korona Kielce 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.19 xG and Korona Kielce 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.897 / defence 1.073 | Korona Kielce attack 0.810 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.249. Data: 31 Lechia Gdansk games / 65 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 38% | Draw 29% | Korona Kielce 33%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Korona Kielce 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Korona Kielce (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lechia Gdansk 40% | Korona Kielce 70%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights