Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 36% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jagiellonia travel to Polsat Plus Arena to take on Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lechia Gdansk stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lechia Gdansk's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jagiellonia — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Jagiellonia have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lechia Gdansk 1.80 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 60% of Jagiellonia's (from Lechia Gdansk's last 10 home games and Jagiellonia's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Jagiellonia have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Lechia Gdansk.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Lechia Gdansk 0–2 Jagiellonia — a Jagiellonia win.
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Jagiellonia trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 70% and Jagiellonia 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 64% | Jagiellonia 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lechia Gdansk surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Jagiellonia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.32 xG and Jagiellonia 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.159 / defence 1.179 | Jagiellonia attack 0.980 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.175. Jagiellonia bring a tight defence (rating 0.790, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Lechia Gdansk's projected output down. Data: built from Lechia Gdansk's last 57 games and Jagiellonia's last 56.
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 36%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.90 | Draw 3.44 | Jagiellonia 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Jagiellonia 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lechia Gdansk 70% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 24 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena • Kick-off: Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.32 / Jagiellonia 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.159 / def 1.179 | Jagiellonia attack 0.980 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Jagiellonia xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia FAQs
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 6 March 2026 at Polsat Plus Arena.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Lechia Gdansk 3 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 24) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 35% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (1.16) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lechia Gdansk's last 57 games and Jagiellonia's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
35%
2.90
29%
3.44
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.67
1.36
Jagiellonia xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.36 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 56 games, going 19W 12D 25L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.77 PPG from 56 outings (27W 18D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 12W 5D 11L across their last 28 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.54 points per game from their last 28 away games (11W 10D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.70 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 64%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
Lechia Gdansk (Home) vs Jagiellonia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Form FAQs
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 19W 12D 25L in their last 56 games (1.23 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 27W 18D 11L in their last 56 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Jagiellonia away?
Jagiellonia's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.46 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Mar 2026, when Lechia Gdansk won Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Jagiellonia.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 61%, Jagiellonia 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lechia Gdansk) and 46% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 61% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 46% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 71% of Jagiellonia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lechia Gdansk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Jagiellonia 3-0 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.32 xG and Jagiellonia 1.36 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jagiellonia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.16 / defence 1.18 against Jagiellonia attack 0.98 / defence 0.79, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 36%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 64%, Jagiellonia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.