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Dominant Lechia Gdansk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jagiellonia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Jagiellonia 3-0 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.32 xG and Jagiellonia 1.36 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jagiellonia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.16 / defence 1.18 against Jagiellonia attack 0.98 / defence 0.79, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 36%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 64%, Jagiellonia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights