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Dominant Lech Poznan run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Radomiak Radom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Radomiak Radom 4-1 at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.30 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.73 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lech Poznan beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.11 / defence 1.24 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.13 / defence 1.29, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 50% | Draw 22% | Radomiak Radom 28%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 60%, Radomiak Radom 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights