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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Sun 23 Nov 2025

13:45

Venue

Stadion Poznan

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lech Poznan Win

50%

Lech Poznan

2.02

22%

Draw

4.45

28%

Radomiak Radom

3.57

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

8.1%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

7.1%

Draw

2 – 2

7.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.30

Lech Poznan xG

Total xG

4.03

1.73

Radomiak Radom xG

50%
22%
28%
Lech PoznanDrawRadomiak Radom

2.02

50%

Home win

4.45

22%

Draw

3.57

28%

Away win

Goals Markets

91%

Over 1.5

1.10

9%

Under 1.5

11.11

77%

Over 2.5

1.30

23%

Under 2.5

4.35

57%

Over 3.5

1.75

43%

Under 3.5

2.33

38%

Over 4.5

2.63

62%

Under 4.5

1.61

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

75%

BTTS Yes

1.33

25%

BTTS No

4.06

Clean Sheet

18%

Lech Poznan

5.66

10%

Radomiak Radom

9.97

Win to Nil

9%

Lech Poznan

11.42

3%

Radomiak Radom

35.62

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.8 3.1 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.2
1 4.1 7.1 6.1 3.5 1.5 0.5
2 4.7 8.1 7.0 4.1 1.8 0.6
3 3.6 6.2 5.4 3.1 1.4 0.5
4 2.1 3.6 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.3
5 1.0 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.300
λ Away (xG) 1.733
Total xG 4.033
League avg home goals 1.608
League avg away goals 1.240
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.109
Lech Poznan defence strength 1.241
Radomiak Radom attack strength 1.126
Radomiak Radom defence strength 1.290
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 48 / 49