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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.35 xG and Jagiellonia 1.07 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.02 / defence 1.08 against Jagiellonia attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 28%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 43%, Jagiellonia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.33 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights