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Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.48 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.43 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.18 / defence 1.17 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 35%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 58%, Zaglebie Lubin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights