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Shock result as Wisla Plock defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wisla Plock beat Jagiellonia 1-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.83 xG and Wisla Plock 1.03 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Wisla Plock outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.23 / defence 1.11 against Wisla Plock attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 21%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Wisla Plock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 68%, Wisla Plock 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.64 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights