Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jagiellonia face Wisla Krakow.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Wisla Krakow make the trip to Chorten Arena to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Jagiellonia's record over their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Jagiellonia at home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Wisla Krakow (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 away fixtures (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.80 for Wisla Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Sep 2026, ended Jagiellonia 0–2 Wisla Krakow — a Wisla Krakow win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 29% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 50% and Wisla Krakow 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 50% | Wisla Krakow 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.45 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.823 / defence 0.993 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.792 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.304. Wisla Krakow's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Jagiellonia's last 47 games and Wisla Krakow's last 14.

Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 45% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 25%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.23 | Draw 3.29 | Wisla Krakow 4.05. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jagiellonia 50% (last 10 home games) | Wisla Krakow 71% (last 7 away games).

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