Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Krakow make the trip to Chorten Arena to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia at Chorten Arena this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wisla Krakow (all games): 5W 2D 2L across 9 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.89 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.89 per game and conceding 1.33. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.89 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.89 for Wisla Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wisla Krakow in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jagiellonia lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with Wisla Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 56% and Wisla Krakow 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 56% | Wisla Krakow 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.75 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.919 / defence 1.098 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.023 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Jagiellonia games / 9 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 41% | Draw 29% | Wisla Krakow 29%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Wisla Krakow 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Wisla Krakow 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 41% | Draw 29% | Wisla Krakow 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 67% | xG Jagiellonia 1.75 / Wisla Krakow 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.919 / def 1.098 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.023 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Wisla Krakow xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Chorten Arena.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 41% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 1 | Wisla Krakow 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Wisla Krakow's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Wisla Krakow's attack (1.02x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 42/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
41%
2.41
29%
3.42
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.22
1.47
Wisla Krakow xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
5%
19.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.47 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 5W 0D 4L from 9 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 2L across 9 games — 1.89 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.89 for Wisla Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Krakow's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Krakow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.89 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 5W 0D 4L in their last 9 games (1.67 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.50 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
1
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow?
From 3 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 1, Wisla Krakow have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Wisla Krakow 2-0 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Jagiellonia, 100% for Wisla Krakow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Jagiellonia and 75% for Wisla Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Jagiellonia's games and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Jagiellonia's matches and 75% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.