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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Radomiak Radom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Radomiak Radom 5-0 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.70 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.19 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.22 / defence 1.11 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 48% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 26%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 69%, Radomiak Radom 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights