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Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Jagiellonia 1-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.01 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.38 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.29 / defence 1.06 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.11 / defence 1.10, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 25%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Piast Gliwice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 56%, Piast Gliwice 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights