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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Motor Lublin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Motor Lublin 4-1 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.90 xG and Motor Lublin 1.21 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.19 / defence 1.02 against Motor Lublin attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 53% | Draw 24% | Motor Lublin 23%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 56%, Motor Lublin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.79 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights