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Shock result as Gornik Zabrze defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Jagiellonia 1-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.50 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.97 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.07 / defence 1.05 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 49% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 24%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Gornik Zabrze win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 57%, Gornik Zabrze 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.70 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights