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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Fri 24 Apr 2026

19:30

Venue

Chorten Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Jagiellonia Win

49%

Jagiellonia

2.05

28%

Draw

3.61

24%

Gornik Zabrze

4.24

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

12.6%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

2 – 0

9.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.50

Jagiellonia xG

Total xG

2.48

0.97

Gornik Zabrze xG

49%
28%
24%
JagielloniaDrawGornik Zabrze

2.05

49%

Home win

3.61

28%

Draw

4.24

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.03

51%

BTTS No

1.97

Clean Sheet

38%

Jagiellonia

2.65

22%

Gornik Zabrze

4.50

Win to Nil

18%

Jagiellonia

5.44

5%

Gornik Zabrze

19.04

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.4 8.2 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1
1 12.6 12.3 6.0 1.9 0.5 0.1
2 9.5 9.2 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 4.8 4.6 2.3 0.7 0.2
4 1.8 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.503
λ Away (xG) 0.973
Total xG 2.476
League avg home goals 1.425
League avg away goals 1.143
Jagiellonia attack strength 1.068
Jagiellonia defence strength 1.049
Gornik Zabrze attack strength 0.812
Gornik Zabrze defence strength 0.988
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 63 / 63