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Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.79 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.94 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.10 / defence 0.97 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 56% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 18%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Pogon Szczecin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 47%, Pogon Szczecin 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.47 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights