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Stalemate at Cracovia Krakow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.35 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.05 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 42% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 28%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 54%, Radomiak Radom 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.38 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights