Cracovia Krakow 2-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cracovia Krakow face Legia Warszawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cracovia Krakow stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cracovia Krakow's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Legia Warszawa — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 1.20 (Legia Warszawa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 2 for Legia Warszawa and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended Cracovia Krakow 0–2 Legia Warszawa — a Legia Warszawa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 46% versus Legia Warszawa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 35% | Legia Warszawa 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cracovia Krakow surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Legia Warszawa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.48 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.063 / defence 1.438 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.042 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.231. Cracovia Krakow's defence rating of 1.438 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Legia Warszawa's projected output up. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 52 games and Legia Warszawa's last 52.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 30% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 45%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 3.35 | Draw 4.00 | Legia Warszawa 2.22. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.48 / 1.84) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 70% (last 10 home games) | Legia Warszawa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 2 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 30% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.48 / Legia Warszawa 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.063 / def 1.438 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.042 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Legia Warszawa xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa FAQs
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 2) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 30% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cracovia Krakow's last 52 games and Legia Warszawa's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
30%
3.35
25%
4.00
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.32
1.84
Legia Warszawa xG
3.35
30%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
16%
6.32
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
5%
21.14
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.84 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 19D 18L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.88 PPG from 52 outings (28W 14D 10L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 8W 10D 7L across their last 25 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 25 away games (10W 7D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.65 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Cracovia Krakow (Home) vs Legia Warszawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa Form FAQs
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 15W 19D 18L in their last 52 games (1.23 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 28W 14D 10L in their last 52 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.36 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 May 2022, when Legia Warszawa won Legia Warszawa 3-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cracovia Krakow
2
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 48%, Legia Warszawa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cracovia Krakow) and 44% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 32%; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 28% of games; Legia Warszawa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 64% of Legia Warszawa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Legia Warszawa 2-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.48 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.84 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Legia Warszawa landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.06 / defence 1.44 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 30% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 45%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 35%, Legia Warszawa 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Cracovia Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.