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Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Cracovia Krakow 2-3 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.34 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.95 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Piast Gliwice outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.90 / defence 0.86 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 25%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Piast Gliwice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 54%, Piast Gliwice 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.50 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights