Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 July 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 1.60 PPG lead over Widzew Łódź (2.30 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Widzew Łódź and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 63% versus Widzew Łódź 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 60% | Widzew Łódź 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.79 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.242 / defence 1.079 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.950 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 0.999. Data: 35 Pogon Szczecin games / 35 Widzew Łódź games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 21%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Widzew Łódź 4.76. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Widzew Łódź 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.79 / Widzew Łódź 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.242 / def 1.079 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.950 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.442 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Widzew Łódź xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 54% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
Record (2 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.24) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.95x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.99
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.81
1.02
Widzew Łódź xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
3%
29.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.02 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 18W 9D 8L from 35 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 15L across 35 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Widzew Łódź heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 10W 4D 3L from 17 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 6W 5D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.17 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 18W 9D 8L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 8D 15L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.00 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 0-4 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 7, Widzew Łódź have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 65%, Widzew Łódź 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Pogon Szczecin) and 35% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 41%; Widzew Łódź in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 35% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 35% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.79 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.02 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.24 / defence 1.08 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 21%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 60%, Widzew Łódź 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.