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Stalemate at Cracovia Krakow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 21, as Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.20 xG and Jagiellonia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Jagiellonia attack 1.06 / defence 0.84, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 35% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 36%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 57%, Jagiellonia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.53 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights