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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Arka Gdynia edge out Motor Lublin 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arka Gdynia beat Motor Lublin 1-0 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.68 xG and Motor Lublin 1.53 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Motor Lublin landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Motor Lublin attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 17/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 39% | Draw 28% | Motor Lublin 33%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 53%, Motor Lublin 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arka Gdynia 1.06 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arka Gdynia win broke the near-deadlock. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights