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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arka Gdynia and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 20, as Arka Gdynia and Legia Warszawa drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.53 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 18/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 45% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 28%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 50%, Legia Warszawa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arka Gdynia 1.17 PPG, Legia Warszawa 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights