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Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Arka Gdynia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Arka Gdynia 0-3 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.38 xG and Jagiellonia 1.08 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Arka Gdynia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against Jagiellonia attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 43% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 29%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 61%, Jagiellonia 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arka Gdynia 1.21 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights