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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Fredrikstad have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters this season, Fredrikstad have posted 5W 4D 1L at Fredrikstad Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fredrikstad Stadion.

Rosenborg (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Rosenborg away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fredrikstad, 1 for Rosenborg and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Rosenborg winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Fredrikstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 40% versus Rosenborg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Rosenborg 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.60 xG and Rosenborg 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 1.172 / defence 0.691 | Rosenborg attack 0.889 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.348. Fredrikstad's defence rating of 0.691 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Fredrikstad games / 39 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 56% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 19%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Rosenborg 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 40% | Rosenborg 60%.

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