Rosenborg 0-2 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 60% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Valerenga at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rosenborg at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Valerenga stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Valerenga have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rosenborg 0.90 PPG, Valerenga 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Valerenga's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Rosenborg hold a clear advantage across the 9 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 2 for Valerenga and 2 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Rosenborg 1–0 Valerenga — a Rosenborg win.
The head-to-head data gives Rosenborg an edge — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Valerenga in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 48% versus Valerenga 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 48% | Valerenga 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.18 xG and Valerenga 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.065 / defence 0.954 | Valerenga attack 0.986 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.882 / away 1.245. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 31 games and Valerenga's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 60% | Draw 20% | Valerenga 20%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.66 | Draw 4.99 | Valerenga 5.11. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.18 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 60% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Rosenborg 5 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Valerenga's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rosenborg 70% (last 10 home games) | Valerenga 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Rosenborg 31 games, Valerenga 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 2 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 60% | Draw 20% | Valerenga 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Rosenborg 2.18 / Valerenga 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.065 / def 0.954 | Valerenga attack 0.986 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.882 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Valerenga xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rosenborg vs Valerenga FAQs
What time does Rosenborg vs Valerenga kick off?
Rosenborg vs Valerenga kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Rosenborg 0 - 2 Valerenga.
Where is Rosenborg vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Valerenga part of?
Rosenborg vs Valerenga is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 2) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 60% chance of winning, Valerenga a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rosenborg and Valerenga will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rosenborg vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rosenborg's last 31 games and Valerenga's last 30, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
60%
1.66
20%
4.99
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.36
1.17
Valerenga xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
11%
8.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
2%
45.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rosenborg vs Valerenga Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.17 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 10W 9D 10L from 29 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 13L across 29 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.34 PPG, Valerenga on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 7W 6D 2L from their last 15 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Valerenga's away record stands at 4W 1D 10L across their last 15 away games, a 0.87 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.59 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 66%.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
Rosenborg (Home) vs Valerenga (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rosenborg
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Rosenborg vs Valerenga Form FAQs
What form are Rosenborg and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 10W 9D 10L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 12W 4D 13L in their last 29 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Valerenga away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.80 PPG; Valerenga away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Valerenga in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from December 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 May 2022, when Rosenborg won Valerenga 0-4 Rosenborg.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
2
Draws
3
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Rosenborg vs Valerenga H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rosenborg have won 5, Valerenga have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Valerenga last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Rosenborg 0-2 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 53%, Valerenga 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Rosenborg) and 53% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rosenborg vs Valerenga Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rosenborg and Valerenga matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Rosenborg's games and 60% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rosenborg and Valerenga matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Rosenborg's recent games and 53% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Valerenga matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 67% of Valerenga's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Rosenborg 0-2 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.18 xG and Valerenga 1.17 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Valerenga outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against Valerenga attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 31/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 60% | Draw 20% | Valerenga 20%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Valerenga win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 48%, Valerenga 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Valerenga's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.34 PPG, Valerenga 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.